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 Climate
Impacts in the Midwest
Overview
The Midwest is home to more than 61 million people that
largely reside in cities, including Chicago, Indianapolis,
Detroit, Milwaukee, Kansas City, Cleveland, Minneapolis, and
St. Paul. Outside the cities are expansive croplands and
forests, the Great Lakes, and major river systems including
the Ohio River, the Upper Mississippi River, and the
Missouri River. The Midwest is subject to extremely cold air
masses from the far north, and warm, humid air masses from
the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in a wide range of both
temperature and precipitation extremes. |
 The
Midwest has gotten warmer, with average annual temperatures
increasing over the last several decades. Between 1900 and
2010, the average air temperature increased by more than
1.5°F. The rate of increase in temperature has accelerated
in recent decades, particularly nighttime and winter
temperatures. Temperatures are projected to continue
increasing across the Midwest, with the greatest increases
in average temperature expected in northern areas. Southern
states will also experience more hot days, with a greater
number of days over 95°F and fewer days below 65°F, which
could lead to greater energy demand for air conditioning.
Picture - Projected
change in summer temperatures under different warming
scenarios. Summers in Illinois and Michigan might feel like
current summers in Texas or Oklahoma by the end of the
century. Source: USGCRP (2009)
Precipitation is greatest in the eastern part of the Midwest
and less towards the west. Heavy downpours are already
common, but climate change is expected to intensify storms
and lead to greater precipitation across the entire region
during this century. Annual precipitation has already risen
by as much as 20% in some areas. Projections of future
precipitation indicate that heavy downpours are likely to
occur primarily in winter and spring months while summers
will become drier, especially in the southern portion of the
region. |
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 Impacts
on Human Health
In the Midwest, climate change is expected to negatively
affect human health in a variety of ways and exacerbate
existing health challenges. Major heat waves have been
occurring more frequently across this region for many
decades, resulting in increased deaths during these extreme
events. Heat stress is likely to increase in the future as a
result of continued rises in temperatures and humidity in
this region, resulting in more heat-related deaths and
illnesses. Air quality is already poor in parts of the
Midwest and is projected to worsen with rising temperatures.
Increased exposure to allergens caused by the lengthening of
the pollen season is also expected to negatively impact
human health.
Picture - Midwestern
temperatures are expected to continue rising. Average annual
air temperatures are projected to increase in the near
future (2041-2070) when compared to the end of last century
(1971-2000) (top left). Increases are expected in both the
number of days over 95°F (top right) and the number of days
over 65°F (bottom right), when air conditioning may be
needed. The length of the frost free season is also
projected to increase (bottom left). Source: USGCRP (2014)
Warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation could
increase the risk of exposure to diseases carried by insects
and rodents. Drinking water quality may also decline as a
result of heavier rainfall events (see Water Resources
section).
For more information on climate change impacts on human
health, please visit the Human Health Impacts page. |
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Impacts on Water Resources
Precipitation in the Midwest is expected become more
intense, leading to increased flood damage, strained
drainage systems, and reduced drinking water availability.
Midwestern cities with impervious infrastructure may result
in surface runoff entering combined storm and sewage
drainage systems. When these systems are overloaded during
intense rainstorms, raw sewage overflow can result,
impacting clean water availability and human health.
More heavy downpours may increase the likelihood of property
damage, travel delays, and disruption in services. Sediment
runoff and erosion may clog reservoirs and reduce storage
capacity. Local governments may invest in new infrastructure
to prevent contamination and protect water resources.
Expected rises summer drought frequency and evaporation
rates could reduce water levels in lakes and wetlands, as
well as in important commercial waterways. Disruptions in
barge traffic along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers have
already occurred. Changes in the Great Lakes are less clear,
but water level decline may force reductions in the weight
of cargo shipments and diminish the usability of coastal
infrastructure, such as docks and piers. |
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 The
Great Lakes
The Great Lakes border many Midwestern states and are
important for drinking water, transportation, commerce, and
recreation. Together, these lakes contain 84% of North
America's surface freshwater, and provide drinking water to
more than 40 million people.
Picture - Winter ice
cover in the Great Lakes has changed in recent decades. This
figure shows the average maximum ice coverage by decade
between 1963 and 2013. Reduced lake ice has contributed to
observed increases in summer water temperatures. Source:
USGCRP (2014)
Warming waters may spur the growth of blue-green and toxic
algae that reduce water quality. Rising temperatures also
diminish winter ice cover, which may leave shores more
vulnerable to waves, increase erosion and flooding, and
damage fish habitat and property. However, less ice cover
could benefit commerce if the shipping season lengthens.
For more information on climate change impacts on water,
please visit the Water Resources page. |
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Impacts on Agriculture and
Ecosystems
Climate change is expected to have many impacts on
agriculture, forests, and other ecosystems in the Midwest.
Midwestern agricultural lands make up two-thirds of the
region's land area and produce 65% of the nation's corn and
soybeans. Some climate-related impacts may provide
short-term benefits for agriculture, but negative effects
are also expected in this time frame. In the long-term,
climate impacts are likely to have increasingly detrimental
effects that increase variability in crop and agricultural
production.
Increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere can
stimulate crop production, and warmer temperatures lengthen
the growing season. Soybeans may increase in yield early in
the century because of the elevated carbon dioxide, but
added stress due to increasing temperature is expected to
offset this benefit later. Corn yields decline as
temperatures warm because of a shortening of the
reproductive development period. Yields of both crops could
also be affected by an increase in disease-causing pathogens
and delayed planting resulting from greater spring
precipitation.
Warmer temperatures, especially extreme heat, stress
livestock animals and cause declines in meat, milk, and egg
production. Diseases may increase as temperature and
moisture conditions become more favorable for disease spread
and range expansion. Additional expenses may also be
incurred as the need to cool animal buildings increases.
Natural ecosystems in the Midwest are being altered by the
combined effects of climate change, land-use change, and an
influx of invasive species. Forests are threatened by more
frequent droughts, wildfires, and insect outbreaks. Many
tree species are expected to gradually shift their ranges
northward.
In the Great Lakes and smaller lakes in the Midwest region,
increased temperatures are likely to affect fish species.
Warming waters are expected to reduce the abundance of many
coldwater species, including brook trout, lake trout, and
whitefish. Coolwater species, such as muskie, smallmouth
bass, and bluegill are expected to increase. The habitat of
many fish species may also be degraded by harmful algal
blooms, coastal erosion and flooding, and pollution runoff.
For more information on climate change impacts on
ecosystems, please visit the Ecosystems Impacts page. |
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EPA Page |
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This is the
EPA page for this topic. To see if the Trump
administration has changed the EPA page, simply click the
link and compare the information with this page. If you
notice changes were made to the EPA page, please post a
comment. Thanks. |
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Key Points
Temperature increase in the Midwest has accelerated in
recent decades, particularly nighttime and winter
temperatures.
This region will likely experience warmer and wetter
winters, springs with heavy precipitation, and hotter
summers with longer dry periods.
Risks to human health are expected to rise with warmer
temperatures, reduced air quality, and increased allergens.
There may be higher yields of important agricultural crops
for a limited period of time. However, over time,
increasingly warmer temperatures and other stressors are
expected to decrease yields. |
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Additional Climate Change Information |
Climate Change and Carbon Dioxide
(Beginner - Listening,
reading)
A video lesson to
help with your understanding of climate change
and carbon dioxide.
The English is
spoken at 75% of normal speed.
Great English listening and reading practice. |
Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change
(Beginner - Listening,
reading)
A video lesson to
help with your understanding of carbon dioxide
and climate change.
The English is
spoken at 75% of normal speed.
Great English listening and reading practice. |
Environmental Group Warns Earth's Health at Risk
(Beginner - Listening,
reading)
A video lesson to
help with your understanding of climate change.
The English is
spoken at 75% of normal speed.
Great English listening and reading practice.
A report by the World Wildlife Fund looked at thousands of animal populations
and found they have dropped significantly in 40 years. |
Sea Levels Rising at Fastest Rate in 3,000 years
(Beginner - Listening,
reading)
A video lesson to
help with your understanding of climate change.
The English is
spoken at 75% of normal speed.
Great English listening and reading practice.
A group of scientists say sea levels are rising at record rates. Another group
found that January temperatures in the Arctic reached a record high. |
Capturing CO2 Gas Is Not Easy
(Beginner - Listening,
reading)
A video lesson to
help with your understanding of climate change.
The English is
spoken at 75% of normal speed.
Great English listening and reading practice.
Most scientists agree that carbon-dioxide gas is partly to blame for climate
change: rising global temperatures. But capturing the CO2 gas released by power
stations is costly and difficult. |
Growth, Climate Change Threaten African Plants and
Animals
(Beginner - Listening,
reading)
A video lesson to
help with your understanding of climate change.
The English is
spoken at 75% of normal speed.
Great English listening and reading practice.
Researchers believe Africa may lose as much as 30 percent of its animal and
plant species by the end of this century. |
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